In this series of pre-season roundtables hosted by our Northwestern Counterpart at Lake the Post, we were asked to predict the final standings by the end of this season.

Interestingly, the Big Ten has been selecting the top 3 teams at its annual pre-season Big Ten Media day and only Ohio State in 2006 has lived up to their predictions. Every single team selected by the Media to win the Big Ten has never reached its lofty billing (except Ohio State in 2006). So lets hope the curse is real because the Media is sure to pick the Buckeyes as the Big Ten champion this year.

Winning the Big Ten takes as luck as it does skill and coaching. That luck isn’t blind luck or the Irish luck crap that Notre Dame wants you to believe. But it is more scheduling luck. Most often the most improved teams have a schedule set up that allows them to improve. More home games, easier opponents in your away games, etc.

So with that in mind, I compiled data on each team’s schedules and determined which games on that schedule would be considered sure wins barring a mind boggling upset. Then I took a look at the toughness of that team’s away schedule using the rankings we compiled for the Toughest Venues list. It is just tougher to play away games, there is no doubt about that. But some venues are just inherently tougher to win at than others so we added the points of each away game’s difficulty and assessed the total points to each team. Using those numbers we determined how teams would sit by season’s end in the Big Ten.

Returning all its starters from both sides of the ball except for 2, this team is beyond skilled. Last year was supposed to be a rebuilding year. Yet they almost went undefeated losing only to last seasons’ surprise team, Illinois. They still made the national championship game. Say what you want about the Big Ten last season, but Ohio State did what they needed to and managed to take the top spot into the title game.

This year, they return everyone except 2 starters, but a tough game at USC early in the season may define Ohio State’s national title hopes. I do not see them beating USC at the Coliseum. To fly over 5 hours across 2 time zones and play the most accomplished team this decade coached by one of the best coaches in collegiate football today on their own field is just too much to ask of the Buckeyes. Sure they did it when they traveled to Texas to play them in 2006, but they had revenge going for them. Texas stole one in Ohio Stadium in 2005, and they were hell bent on taking it back in 2006.

There just isn’t that revenge motivation in beating the Trojans. Sure Tressel can talk about it being the ‘Big Game’, but we all seen how well that worked out in last year’s Championship Game.

Look for the Buckeyes to drop another conference game in addition to USC. My pick is to Michigan State. Last year, Michigan State went to the Horseshoe and controlled the first half before a blotched field goal was returned for a touchdown by the Buckeyes spiraling the Spartans to defeat. Mark Dantonio will make sure this game will be far more competitive.

2. Wisconsin

Is it me, or are the Badgers the popular pick to contend for the Big Ten title year in and year out? Last year, it was Wisconsin and Michigan that everyone thought would fight for the top spot, this year it is Ohio State and Wisconsin. The Badgers are clearly a team to contend with this year, but the only reason why they would take the #2 spot in the Big Ten standings is because the Nittany Lions have to play them at Madison under the lights this year. That game will determine the #2 and #3 spot. Should the Lions pull off the upset in Madison (not exactly unthinkable considering Penn State almost won in 2006 at Madison if it weren’t for Morelli’s ineptitude), they will be sitting pretty in the #2 spot by season’s end.

3. Penn State

Talk about a tough schedule. Illinois at night, night games at Wisconsin and at Ohio State, and prime time matchups with Oregon State and Syracuse at the Carrier Dome. Penn State easily has the toughest conference schedule this year in the Big Ten. Given their tendency to play like the high school scout team when away from home, Penn State’s season doesn’t look bright. But they do have one thing going for them this year. Anthony Morelli will no longer be under center for the Lions this fall.

The Lions is also second in most returning starters in the Big Ten only behind Ohio State. If they can get past October with just 2 losses, a BCS bid is most likely in the books for the Lion faithful.

4. Iowa

How is Iowa sitting at the #4 spot after yet another disappointing .500 year last season? Because this is the same team that beat Illinois at home after the Illini upset top-5 Wisconsin and ranked Penn State. Because this is the same Iowa team that lost out on a bowl bid when many felt they deserved one. Penn State, Purdue, and Wisconsin all have to play the Hawkeyes in Iowa City. If the Hawkeyes can survive their Iowa State rivalry game (which they surprising continue to struggle with annually), and manage to win 1 out of those 3 games, they will actually be a dark horse contender for the Big Ten title.

5. Michigan State

The Spartans are my surprise team of the Big Ten this season. Like Illinois last season, Wisconsin in 2006, and Penn State in 2005, Michigan State were so close to breaking out last year. They dominated the Buckeyes in the first half before a special teams breakdown sent that game into the loss column. But in a very un-Spartan like fashion, they actually closed out the season with a win against the Nittany Lions. That win meant more than simply earning a bowl bid. It proved to the team and its fans that this is no longer John L Smith’s Spartans that falter at the end, they closed out strong and won when they needed to coming back from a 2 score deficit to beat a good Penn State squad last year.

Look for the Ohio State game to be their coming out party this year. Watch the fired up Spartans retake what they gave away last season to the Buckeyes, except it will be at Spartan Stadium and all its “300″ glory.

6. Purdue

What a horrible year for Joe Tiller to retire. A classy coach and a even classier man deserves to go out on top. Unfortunately, it will be a while before Purdue can knock off Ohio State from the pole position. Purdue will manage to pull off a number of upsets this season with Tiller’s retirement as motivation. Penn State, Michigan and Illinois all travel to Purdue this season. With Michigan as a sure win for the Boilermakers, look for an upset of either the Lions or Fighting Illini in West Lafayette this season.

7. Illinois

Illinois will not sneak up on anyone this year. Two of the three biggest stunners pulled off by the Fighting Illini was against Penn State and Wisconsin at home. But let’s not forget that Penn State marched into the Illini red zone four times in its last four possessions in the fourth quarter and came away with 4 turnovers, 3 interceptions thrown by Morelli and 1 fumble lost by Morelli. If Penn State had simply ran the ball and kicked field goals in each of the last 4 times in the end zone, they would have won the game. But instead they turned it over 4 times and lost the game by 7.

Then theres the Ohio State game. Oh boy did they pull off the upset of upsets in a season chalk full of them. But remember the last time Ohio State lost a game in the regular season to Penn State and Texas in 2005? The next year, they marched into Texas’ own stadium and dismantled them with precision. They did the same to Penn State that very year. Especially after what Ron Zook pulled with the fourth down call reversal in the final quarter, Jim Tressel will be out to humiliate the Illini at Memorial Stadium without even breaking a sweat.

The Illini was last season’s popular pick, but they will soon be yesterday’s news. No one will be overlooking them. Anticipate a fall to the Insight or Motor City Bowl this season.

8. Minnesota

Is it possible for a last place team in the Big Ten last season to jump this high? Sure. Think Penn State 2004 and Penn State 2005. Minnesota 2008 might not be Penn State 2005, but their impressive recruiting class will be able to come in and contribute immediately. The schedule also cooperates with an improved season with Indiana, Northwestern, Michigan and Iowa going into the Hump Dump. This provides the Gophers with a great opportunity to pick up at least 2 Big Ten wins. Along with all 4 non-conference patsies, that would make it at least a 6 win season, 5 more wins than last year.

9. Michigan

Michigan will be beaten and beaten badly this season. For years Michigan has been beating on its fellow Big Ten rivals mostly due to Lloyd Carr’s impeccable coaching. This is not to say Rich Rod can’t coach. But he simply doesn’t have the players to run his offense. Sure he’ll modify it this year to fit his players, but if history repeats itself, his first year will be dismal. And to the delight of all Big Ten teams, Michigan will struggle. Michigan will be last season’s Notre Dame.

Can you honestly tell me with confidence that they can even win all their non-conference games? With Utah, and Notre Dame (away), the odds are in favor of a 2-2 start before they even start their conference gauntlet. Then there are revenge games away at Penn State, at Purdue, a vastly improved Michigan State, Illinois, at Minnesota and at Ohio State. If you look at their schedule, only 3 games can be considered a sure win, Miami (OH), Toledo and Northwestern.

The 2008 season will be sweet music to all Big Ten fans not sporting Maize and Blue.

10. Northwestern

This is the same wildcat squad that lost to Duke at home last year, what makes you think they will suddenly beat the Blue Devils in Durham this season? Then there’s an improved Syracuse squad. So that would only make 2 sure wins this season. It would simply be asking too much for Northwestern to win most of their 10 toss up games.

11. Indiana

It was great that the Hoosiers made a bowl game last season. Unfortunately, they will not be able to do so again this year. The teams they managed to beat last season have all improved. They came extremely close to beating a few squads last year losing by a score or less, but unfortunately most of those games are away this year making it a bit tougher. Despite the fall in the standings, the Hoosiers are still on the right track. The schedule was just not set up for Indiana to maintain sustained success this year.

Releated Posts:

1. Looking Deep into our Crystal Ball
2. Breaking Down the Big Ten Bubble
3. Addendum for SI: The College Football Issue
4. Nothing like a little domination
5. 2009 Schedule Official