The Big Ten Men’s Basketball Tournament starts in two days, and more than any other conference (except, probably, for the small, one-bid conferences), there is still a lot up in the air.  It seems that only three teams are safely in, that of course being Michigan State, Illinois, and Purdue, and that three teams are, barring a cinderella run a la Georgia in last year’s SEC tournament, are out.  So for Indiana, Iowa, and Northwestern, it’s as much playing spoiler as anything.

But we’ve seen that playing spoiler is something that has suited teams in the past.  The Hawkeyes, of course, beat Penn State on Saturday when a win would’ve all but assured Penn State a tournament selection.  And just earlier today, DePaul, who had been winless in Big East play, defeated a Cincinnati team that had some bubble hopes.

But the big thing to watch in the Big Ten is how it’s bubble teams perform, and how many of them make the tournament.  The teams who are angling for some of the final spots in the tournament are, obviously, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin, and as a testament to how wide open the conference is, I wouldn’t be surprised if any of those teams win the tournament, or lose their first game.

The expectation is that the conference will have at least 6 teams in the field of 65.  Now, as of 4:30 Tuesday afternoon, both ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and Sports Illustrated’s Andy Glockner have 8 Big Ten teams in the conference.  That’s more than the 7 Big East teams they each predict.  While that would obviously be a major coup for the Big Ten, I’m not expecting it. But either way, here’s a breakdown of the Big Ten bubble teams and their likeliness, pre-conference tournament, to go dancing.

Ohio State probably has the best resume of any Big Ten bubble teams, especially when you consider out-of-conference schedule.  Yes, the Buckeyes were blown out by West Virginia, but they boast wins over Butler, Notre Dame, and at Miami.  Granted, the latter two don’t look so impressive now as they did at the time, but that’s three very solid out of conference wins.  Now, within the conference, they’re not particularly impressive, with an overtime win against Purdue headlining their 10 conference wins.  They drew Wisconsin in the 4/5 matchup, and a win would absolutely cement their chances.  But even if they lose, they’re still probably in.

Tournament Odds: 90%

Wisconsin is kind of like the anti-Penn State.  The Badgers have a pretty high RPI, #38, despite just 19 wins.  However, their losses are of the numbers-boosting type: against UCONN and Texas, and at Marquette in the out of conference schedule.  They did have some solid wins in that stretch too, beating Virginia Tech in the ACC-Big Ten challenge.  After an awful stretch when they lost seven consecutive conference games, it looked like they were dead in the water.  But they responded with a five game winning stretch that included victories over Illinois, Ohio State, and Penn State.  Wisconsin could go either way in the tournament: they probably need the win more than Ohio State does, but 9 wins over top 100 opponents might be enough to get them in regardless.

Tournament Odds: 70%

Michigan has enjoyed a resurgence as of late.  After an incredible out-of-conference stretch that included wins against then-top 5 teams UCLA and Duke, it looked like Michigan would be the surprise team in the Big Ten.  But they too, like Wisconsin, hit a tough stretch which included losing 5 of 6, and 7 of 9 games.  After losing at Iowa, it looked like the Wolverines’ bubble was burst, but Michigan put together wins against Purdue and at Minnesota to close out their season that has put them squarely on the bubble.  A win against Iowa would help, another win over Illinois would put them in. A loss against Iowa, and they’re done.

Tournament Odds: 55%

Penn State has been beaten to death right now.  We know all about our season: a pathetic out of conference schedule that gave us 11 joke wins and two tough losses, followed by a very up-and-down conference season, which featured wins at Michigan State, against Purdue (sans Hummel and Kramer), and a sweep of Illinois, the latter of which came in perhaps the best game of the Big Ten season.  A win in Iowa on Saturday would have taken Penn State off the bubble, and in fact given PSU the #2 seed in the Big Ten tournament.  However, that lucky son-of-a-bitch talented Hawkeye Jake Kelly banked in two threes in overtime, leading Iowa to the double OT victory.  Penn State gets a very interesting draw as the #6 seed: a first round game against Indiana absolutely needs to be won.  If they can do that, Purdue looms.  Beat the Boilermakers, and Penn State is in.  Lose to Indiana, and they’re in the NIT.  Beat Indiana, and lose to Purdue, and we’re sweating it out next Sunday.

Tournament Odds: 50%

Minnesota has the Big Ten’s best out-of-conference win, a neutral court victory against Louisville that headlined a perfect 12-0 record before conference play.  They carried some of that momentum into the Big Ten season, winning 4 of their first 5, including victories against Penn State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin.  Ranked for much of the year, the Golden Gophers ended up with one win over a ranked team in conference play, that being a blowout win against Illinois.  If the season ended today, they’re in.  But the reason I have them ranked behind Penn State is because of their draw in the conference tournament.  Northwestern is a team that has some great wins, and always plays hard.  Of the three spoiler teams, they’re the most likely to steal a win.  Minnesota probably needs to beat Northwestern to grab a tourney spot, and that’s not an easy task.

Tournament Odds: 45%

Now, if Lunardi, Glockner, and some others are right, each of these 5 teams will likely be called “in” by the Selection Committee next Sunday.  But the last three certainly need to take care of business in their first round games, and even then get a little luck.  If you’re a fan of any of those teams, you’re pulling hard for Butler tonight, and for no surprises in tournament play.  A Georgia coming out of nowhere to steal a spot would really hurt these teams’ chances by taking away just one spot.

Remember, next Sunday, come on over to NittanyWhiteOut, as we’ll be live-blogging Selection Sunday.  No matter what team you’re backing, nothing matches the excitement and nerviosity (is that a word) of the day, and you can even find out how to win tickets to the Penn State-Ohio State game!

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