Okay, it’s one day to Selection Sunday, and as much as some things have been already decided, so much is still up in the air.  We lost a tough one to Purdue last night, but we are not dead.  The sky is not falling  The way I see it now, Penn State is still in, but there are a lot of games that have to go our way over the next two days.  Let’s take a look at the field, as it stands now:

First, there are 14 teams who have already punched their ticket to the dance.  The automatic bids have been extended to:

Cornell (Ivy)
East Tennessee State (Atl. Sun)
Morehead State (Ohio Valley)
Radford (Big South)
Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley)
Chattanooga (Southern)
Virginia Commonwealth (Colonial)
Gonzaga (West Coast)
Siena (Metro Atlantic)
North Dakota State (Summit)
Cleveland State (Horizon)
Robert Morris (Northeast Conference)
Portland State (Big Sky)
American (Patriot)

Next, there are 7 more conferences who have yet to crown a champion, but no matter who wins, they will be strictly a one-bid conference.  This makes for a total of 21 auto bids that really don’t affect us at all.

Mid-American Conference
Sun Belt
Southland
Big West
SWAC
MEAC
America East

After that, we have teams who lost their conference tournament, but are virtual locks to make the NCAA tournament, or teams who are still alive in their ongoing conference tournament.  These are not the bubble teams.  The way I see it, there are 33 “safe” teams, making 54 teams “in” so far.

Utah State
Butler
UConn
Louisville
Pittsburgh
Marquette
West Virginia
Syracuse
Villanova
Duke
North Carolina
Wake Forest
Clemson
Florida State
Boston College
Ohio State
Michigan State
Purdue
Illinois
Missouri
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Kansas
Arizona State
UCLA
Washington
LSU
Tennessee
Utah
BYU
Memphis
Xavier

Now, if you can do some math, you’ll figure out that there are 11 at-large spots still up for grabs.  First, the teams who are probably in.  While nothing is set in stone, these 6 teams aren’t really on the bubble, and will likely be selected for the field of 65.

Cal
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Texas A&M
Michigan
Dayton

So we’ve got the rest of the field fighting for the last 5 spots.  Here, in order of likelihood for selection, are those teams.  Most have been eliminated and so will not be able to enhance their resume before Sunday:

Temple
Maryland
Penn State
San Diego State
Florida
Virginia Tech
Creighton
Arizona
St. Mary’s
Auburn

If you look at it this way, it would look like Penn State has a very good chance to make the Field of 65.  I don’t see a team like Creighton or Arizona making it ahead of us, regardless.

However, there are multiple ongoing tournaments that need to shake out in Penn State’s favor.  With the diminishing bubble, if two or three of these teams win their conference tournament, we’re in the NIT.

First, Arizona State needs to defeat USC in the Pac-10 tournament tonight.  The Sun Devils are already in, and USC is out if they don’t win.  And besides, you don’t even need a reason to root against USC.

Next is the A-10 championship.  Xavier and Dayton are in despite their early exits from the conference tournament, and a championship game of Duquesne vs. Temple poses some serious concern to fans of bubble teams.  Temple is probably in with the strength of their reaching the finals, so if Duquesne pulls this one out, it might just mean four bids for the Atlantic Ten.

In the WAC, Utah State needs to beat Nevada and secure the automatic bid.  They’re probably in regardless, so a Wolfpack win knocks one more team off the bubble.

Missouri absolutely needs to beat Baylor in the Big XII championship.  Baylor, despite their great run in the tournament, is out unless they win.  Tonight, we’re all Missouri fans.

We are pulling for LSU and Tennessee to take care of business and beat Mississippi State and Auburn, respectively, in the semifinals of the SEC tournament.  Mississippi State is probably out unless they win, but Auburn is still alive for an at-large bid if they make the finals.  I’d prefer not to chance it.

Memphis needs to defeat Tulsa in the Conference USA championship game to make sure that conference gets just one bid.

Utah is probably in, so it would be very helpful if they could knock San Diego State off the bubble.

We could use a Duke beatdown of Maryland tonight.  I think the Terps are in regardless, but if they leave a bad taste in the mouths of the committee, it couldn’t hurt.

Now, this road does not look like a safe one to go down.  However, we can always have faith.  Remember, we beat Michigan State, Purdue, and Illinois twice.  No Big Ten team with 10+ conference wins has ever been left out of the field of 65.  And no matter what, be sure to check back here tomorrow for our LiveBlog of Selection Sunday, starting at 6:00, where you can sign up for the NittanyWhiteOut bracket challenge and get your shot at a free Penn State-Ohio State ticket.

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