Where do we go from here? Iowa came to town and took a nice look at Penn State’s national championship aspirations, put them in a glass jar, shook them up and smashed them on the turf of Beaver Stadium.

Now Penn State fans are looking to pick up the pieces…

Naturally it is hard to imagine that Penn State can play their way back into the national title picture but it is not entirely out of the question, is it? To do so will be tough, but here is what could happen that could the Nittany Lions back in the discussion.

First, Penn State must win the rest of their games. That would include victories over Ohio State (currently ranked ahead of Penn State), Michigan (who seems to be on an up-swing), Minnesota (who is proving to be no slouch), and a road game at Michigan State to end the season, which is usually a difficult place for Penn State to come away with a win in recent years.

The next course of action would be for teams ranked ahead of Penn State to start taking a tumble. Fortunately for Penn State, many of those teams will be playing each other before the season is over.

The Toughest Battles

The SEC has three teams ranked ahead of Penn State (#1 Florida, #3 Alabama, and #4 LSU – AP Poll). Florida and LSU play each other next week and Alabama plays LSU in November. There is a possibility that Florida and Alabama could play in the much desired SEC Championship rematch in Atlanta.

There is always a chance any of those three SEC teams could lose to another SEC opponent, because we all know how tough and deep the SEC is, right?

The next hurdle to leap would be the top teams in the Big XII. Texas is holding strong at #2 but they still have to play three teams currently ranked in the Top 25, including the game against Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl. Oklahoma is also ranked ahead of Penn State and has already taken a hit this year thanks to BYU. One of those teams is going to lose, but it may be more beneficial to Penn State if Oklahoma loses. If things go according to plan, a Texas loss may still not drop them below Penn State in mid-October.

Those Pesky BCS Busters

Right now three BCS Busters lay in the path of Penn State. Boise State (#5), TCU (#11), and Houston (#12) all sit in front of Penn State in the rankings, but if the Nittany Lions take care of their own business it should not take too much effort to find them leapfrog the mid-majors. The problem this year is that each of those schools play in a different conference and none of them are scheduled to play each other before the end of the regular season.

If any of them run their own table they may have a case to stay ahead of Penn State. Boise State may have the easiest schedule remaining, but a trip to Hawaii is never easy in the WAC. All of a sudden, that season opening victory against Oregon is carrying a little more weight again too.

TCU will have the toughest schedule to remain undefeated as they still have to play at BYU. After the Cougars were embarrassed at home by Florida State two weeks ago you have to think that BYU would love nothing more to shatter the BCS dreams of a conference rival, after their own lofty expectations fell through the roof.

As for Houston, they will have to get through five road games and just four home games for the rest of the year. They may have a pair of victories over Big XII teams this season already, but I am not quite ready to say that these Cougars run the table.

The Other Hurdles

USC is perhaps going to be the easiest team to jump this season. Anybody who has watched the Trojans knows that they are as vulnerable this season as they have been in recent years. Already having lost at Washington the Trojans are now ripe for the picking in the PAC-10, but who can repeat what the Huskies did a couple weeks ago?

If the Trojans can get away with a pair of victories on the road at Cal, who is looking to redeem themselves in the worst possible way, and Notre Dame, who has an offense but lacks a defense, then circle the Halloween game against Oregon. The Ducks look like they are in fact going to be a force to reckon with out west and they are tough to beat in their stadium. Right now I would bet that Oregon beats USC when the Trojans come to town.

In the Big Ten Iowa has already done what they need to do against Penn State, and now the Nittany Lions will need Iowa to lose a game. We know now that Iowa’s defense is for real, but we also know that their offense is nothing too special. Yes, the freshmen running backs had some very nice runs against a Sean Lee-less Penn State defense, but the Hawkeyes will have a tough road to travel. After a home game against Michigan in two weeks Iowa travels to Wisconsin and Michigan State. They also must play at Ohio State and at home against a Minnesota team that still has a bitter taste from last season’s drubbing.

Who’s Left?

Going by the current AP poll as a barometer, that leaves Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, and Cincinnati.

I am just going on the assumption that Oklahoma State will lose at least once before the year is over as they still have Texas and Oklahoma on their plate. Missouri and Texas Tech will not be easy either, so I think they are done already.

The Hokies are interesting though because of the state of the ACC. I can not see Virginia Tech being anything but a favorite in the remaining games, yet the ACC is such a free-for-all conference that they are just as likely to lose any game as North Carolina or Georgia Tech is. Plus they would have to win a conference championship game as well.

Cincinnati on the other hand could make a run. Playing in the Big East could see a similar fate as Virginia Tech may have though. As good as Cincinnati has looked early on, I have no confidence that they will run the table in the Big East, and a loss to any team in the Big East will surely knock the Bearcats below a one-loss Penn State team.

Dream Scenario, with a hint of realistic hopes

Florida loses too South Carolina or Florida State
Texas loses at Missouri or Texas A&M
Alabama loses to Tennessee or Auburn
LSU loses to Mississippi or Alabama
Virginia Tech loses to Georgia Tech or North Carolina
USC loses to UCLA or Oregon (or Oregon State???)
Oklahoma loses to Miami or Nebraska
Cincinnati loses to West Virginia or Illinois
TCU loses to Utah
Houston loses to Southern Miss
Iowa loses to Michigan or Wisconsin and Ohio State

If those things happen, Penn State should be in good shape to play for the BCS Championship against Boise State!

What’s your take Penn State fans? Also, feel free to cast your vote on the fortunes of the 2009 season on my recent post on Examiner as well. Comments on this question left on this page may be used in next week’s poll analysis.

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