So your team lost just 3 weeks into the season. Big deal. You might want to hold off booking alternate Bowl plans just yet.

If recent BCS polling behavior have anything to say about it, your team’s chances of reaching that coveted title game have actually increased in relation to teams currently boasting undefeated records. Don’t get me wrong, if there are still 2 undefeated BCS conference squads, there is no chance your team will be headed for Pasadena regardless of when they lost during the season. But if this season continues to play out at the frantic upsetting pace reminiscent of 2007, fans of Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Oregon and USC should sit back and rest easy knowing their team has a much better shot at the grand prize than an undefeated team just waiting to be picked off later on in the season. All they have to do is take care of business the rest of the way.

Last season provided the perfect example when Texas was passed over for the Big 12 title game and a shot at the Championship Game as a direct result of losing a few weeks later, despite a head-to-head victory over the very Oklahoma team that replaced them. Fortunately for the Sooners, voters had sufficient time to move them back up the polls following their week 6 loss. Texas, who lost to Texas Tech (away) in week 10 weren’t so lucky.

Florida was even more fortunate when they got their loss to unranked Ole Miss out of the way early just 4 weeks into the 2008 season. Compared head to head, Texas’ loss at Texas Tech was much more respectable than Florida’s loss to Ole Miss at home. But given time, voters were able to move the Gators back into the top spot as they simply took care of business the rest of the way.

As the 2009 season continues to play out much like the 2007 season, it will be interesting to see if another 2 loss team will be given a shot at the title game again. By the end of the regular season, both #2  LSU and #3 Virginia Tech had 2 losses, but voters just could not forget the drubbing LSU put on Virginia Tech in week 2. In retrospect, had West Virginia or even Missouri taken care of business in their final game, we would not have even seen Ohio State or LSU in the title game.

Let’s compare:

Team A lost by 10 points to the #8 ranked team. Team B lost by 3 to the #1 ranked team. Both teams lost on the road. Both teams ended the season with the same record.

Team A was awarded a spot in the title game, Team B was relegated to another BCS bowl. What allowed Team A to propel past Team B despite a worse loss?

Team A (Florida) lost in week 7 while Team B (Michigan) lost in week 12. Putting past the eventual result between Florida and Ohio State, based on the body of work during the regular season, Michigan was much more deserving of the title spot than Florida but was still bypassed by the Gators.

Unfortunately for Michigan, their 3-point loss to the top ranked team in the nation came in the final game with just 1 week left in the regular season, but voters had 6 weeks to forgive the Gators for their 10 point loss to the #8 team.

History has made it abundantly clear that when it comes to the BCS poll, time, not actual results is what really matters. As long as USC, Cal, Oregon, Oklahoma and Ole Miss takes care of business, they have a much better shot at Pasadena than any other team that will eventually finish with the same record.

Releated Posts:

1. Championship Week Blogpolling
2. What now?
3. Penn State’s Wild BCS Dream Scenario
4. Women and Children First! Hokies and Buckeyes go down!
5. Devon’s Week 7 Blogpoll Rankings

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