Explaining the BCS or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Orange Bowl

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Explaining the BCS or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Orange Bowl

Submitted by Devon on November 23, 2009 – View Comments

Penn State could return to the Rose Bowl in 2010

In browsing the internets, I’ve seen a lot of people who make declarations that Penn State will be in the Fiesta Bowl, or the Orange Bowl, or the Capital One without really understanding how the Bowl selection works. Will it be Penn State or Iowa getting into a BCS bowl? I’ll make it my goal to clarify the selection process, and explain why Penn State is likely to play in the Orange Bowl.

Let’s start by going through the motions, assuming that Texas and Florida are in the MNC game. Florida is really interchangeable with Alabama, here, as the winner of the SEC Championship Game clinches a spot in the championship game, and the loser, as we discuss later, will head to the Sugar. The MNC is tied to the #1 and #2 teams in the BCS standings, which will be the SEC Champion and, in all likelihood, Texas, unless they get stunned by Nebraska in the Big XII Title Game or by Texas A&M next week. Because them winning out is the likeliest situation, we’ll use that as the assumption.

The Bowl Tie-ins are as follows: Big Ten and Pac-10 champions both go to the Rose Bowl, the Orange Bowl hosts the ACC Champion, the Big XII has a tie-in with the Fiesta Bowl, and the same goes for the SEC and the Sugar Bowl. Without tie-ins, but guaranteed a spot in a BCS game are the Big East Champion and TCU or Boise State, whichever finishes the season with a higher ranking. In all likelihood, that’s TCU.

Now, when selecting the at-large teams, the first pick goes to the Sugar Bowl, to replace their auto-tie in from the SEC, who will be playing in the MNC game. Being in the southeast, and a traditional SEC bowl destination, the Sugar picks Alabama or Florida, whoever loses the SEC Championship game. That’s an absolute given. Next to select will be the Fiesta Bowl, replacing their auto tie-in. Texas.

Picking next, the Fiesta Bowl has just a few selections. Considering that only 2 teams can be selected from each conference, and that TCU and Cincinnati still need a home, the only other teams selectable would be Penn State, Iowa, Oklahoma State, Boise State, and, potentially, Cincinnati, if they lose to Pittsburgh. With a Big XII tie in in all other years, the Fiesta is going to be pressured to go with Oklahoma State, just like the Rose Bowl did with Illinois a few years back. The Big XII will be pulling hard for the Fiesta to take Okie State, so while a few other teams might be better options, Oklahoma State and the Big XII conference will put the full-court press on the Fiesta Bowl to select the hometown team.

Now you have the rest of the bowls, who already have one team locked in. The Orange Bowl gets the ACC champion, and has the first pick of non-auto qualifiers, not counting the replacement picks. With Cincinnati or Pitt not an attractive option (especially considering that last year’s Orange Bowl, Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech, was the worst rated and attended Bowl games in the history of the BCS), the Orange Bowl needs a proven ratings and attendance draw. Penn State sold that place out in 2005, and with Georgia Tech or Clemson not a terribly attractive team, the Orange bowl takes Penn State to ensure that they get some sort of national following into the game. You can also bank on the fact that the Orange Bowl is pulling hard for Clemson to win in the ACC Championship Game. The Tigers haven’t played in a BCS bowl since 1982, and would bring an energetic fanbase.

The next pick would go to the Fiesta Bowl, who already have Oklahoma State in the well. With an undefeated, and damn good, TCU team on the board, and the pick limited to the Horned Frogs or the Big East Champion, the Fiesta takes a semi-local team. They’d travel well and they can play up the “undefeated” factor, just as the Fiesta did a few years back with Boise State. TCU is guaranteed a BCS bid as the highest ranked non-BCS team in the top 12, and the other option is really not very appealing. Neither Cincinnati nor Pittsburgh would bring in a particularly large audience to Glendale, and the same goes for television ratings.

The Sugar, who picks last among the 2010 BCS bowls, is forced to pick up the Big East champion, but that game will already be an attendance success with Alabama or Florida in it. It seems inevitable that, at least for the foreseeable future, the Big East champion will be the last team selected, like the fat kid in a high school game of volleyball. Fortunately, there’s at least one good team in this Sugar Bowl, unlike last year, which featured a very mediocre Virginia Tech team in addition to Cincinnati.

Boise State gets screwed again, but they aren’t a big ratings draw, and frankly aren’t a terribly good team. They don’t have a big enough fanbase to travel anywhere other than the Fiesta, and for that bowl Oklahoma State is a more attractive option.

But the big question here, especially when it pertains to Penn State, is where Iowa fits in. According to most sources, the Orange Bowl would really like to have Penn State in the game, and may well be able to make that selection. Though Iowa travels very well, and draws decent television ratings, they’re simply not as good as Penn State’s. Furthermore, the Orange Bowl knows how well PSU fans come to South Florida. However, the Fiesta Bowl would be more likely to take Iowa, and seem to be leaning in that direction. For all intents and purposes, it should come down to Iowa or Oklahoma State with the replacement pick.

Because the Orange Bowl would take Penn State if that is possible, and since the BCS only allows 2 teams from each conference, the Fiesta would need to pick Iowa–over TCU, Penn State, or Oklahoma State–with their replacement pick, or else Penn State will be playing in south, rather than central, Florida.

Let me explain something here: I don’t think Penn State deserves to play in a BCS bowl any more than Iowa does. Though Iowa hasn’t played well–at all–down the stretch, losing 2 of 3 and winning the other one, in excruciating fashion, 12-0 against Minnesota, odds are that Ricky Stanzi should be back for the bowl game. Most importantly, though, they beat Penn State head-to-head, and even though Penn State is probably a better team than Iowa (I sincerely think they would win that game if it was played again at a neutral site), Iowa deserves the BCS bid over Penn State.

However, it’s not about whether a team deserves a bid, its about the economics of the situation. Penn State and Iowa both travel very well, but Penn State has more of a national following than does Iowa. In terms of television ratings, Penn State is almost a guarantee to bring in a large audience. In fact, a study of TV ratings of bowl games, compared the last 15 years of TV bowl coverage, and found that Penn State drew the 6th largest television audiences of all schools, averaging a 3.3% larger crowd than the average for the bowl games they played in. So, despite getting to choose both teams in their matchup, the Fiesta finds themselves in a bind. Does Iowa present enough of an upgrade from Oklahoma State to make it worth pissing off their bowl partner, Oklahoma State, especially in a game against TCU that already promises to be a snoozer? Plus, if Iowa is taken first, then the Orange Bowl would select TCU to face the ACC Champion, leaving Boise State as the probable opponent for the Hawkeyes.

So if, after all that you don’t think it comes down to the Fiesta Bowl’s selection that determines what happens to Penn State, read this quote, from the Centre Daily Times, who spoke with the Orange Bowl representative who was present at Penn State’s blowout victory over Michigan State last Saturday:

As unfair as it may be, that’s where Penn State wins, with the legendary Paterno as the front man and with thousands of roadies trailing closely. Those factors just might be enough to vault the Nittany Lions into a BCS berth that seemed impossible after that loss to Ohio State two weeks ago.

“All those are factors,” Kosnitzky said. “They’re not weighted. The committee has the ability in this very democratic process to look at all these factors and weigh them in any particular year. Sometimes they factor more heavily in some years than others.”

Asked about Paterno, Kosnitzky said, “Extremely compelling.”

How about Penn State’s fans, who are accustomed to traveling in droves?

“They said they’d love to come to Miami,” Kosnitzky mentioned of his rally encounter, “And they said this is only the fraction of the number they’ll bring.”

And what are the odds Penn State ends up in the Orange Bowl?

“Terrific chance,” Kosnitzky said. “We like Penn State a lot. We like everything about the university.”

If the Fiesta doesn’t pick Iowa, we’re going to the Orange Bowl. That’s a NittanyWhiteOut guarantee. To those expecting a Penn State/Pittsburgh matchup, that’s pretty unlikely. It would have to happen in the Fiesta Bowl, and while I’ve explained above why they’re likely to take Oklahoma State, it’s more important that Pittsburgh has a small fanbase that travels notoriously poorly. While we wish that rivalry could take root in the desert of Arizona, it’s not going to happen.

The last scenario, and easy the unlikeliest, is Texas tripping up in the Big XII Championship game. In this scenario, TCU jumps into the MNC game, and Nebraska becomes the auto-tie in of the Fiesta Bowl. The Sugar still selects the SEC loser, but the Orange Bowl would have to go with Texas to match up against the ACC Champion. Then, the Fiesta Bowl could select between Iowa and Penn State to face Nebraska, and in this case, I’d rather Iowa draw the Huskers, and that’s what would probably happen. It would be more “impressive” to beat an SEC team, like Ole Miss, in the Capital One, than an unranked Nebraska. However, I highly doubt that Nebraska could knock off Texas, and I’d say it’s a near certainty that Texas wins out to reach the BCS Championship Game.

So if you’re scoring at home, this is what I expect the bowl matchups to be:

Rose: Oregon (Pac-10)/Ohio State
Fiesta: TCU/Oklahoma State
Sugar: Alabama/Cincinnati
Orange: Georgia Tech/Penn State
MNC Game: Florida/Texas

The second, and maybe slightly less likely scenario, only offers a change in two bowl games:

Orange: GaTech/TCU
and
Fiesta: Iowa/Boise State

In this case, Penn State would be relegated to the Capital One bowl, against, in all likelihood, Ole Miss, from the SEC.

Note: this was originally published as a fanpost, at BlackShoeDiaries.com

Releated Posts:

Bill S.

I guess it would help if you told me where you were going to go with your point after you figured the Big Ten would win 5 or 6 (or who knows, maybe 7) of those 8 matchups.

Once most people see that some sort of evidence suggests the conferences are even (or heaven forbid that the Big East might seem to be ahead in some area), then we just throw that information aside. LOL. Really, now we can't compare anything all of a sudden? Over the years, I have grown used to this, though.

psudevon

Not really. See, I never said the Big East was a shitty conference--not here, at least--though the evidence isn't exactly overwhelming when it comes to OOC matchups. Cincy, your best team, allowed 36 points, I think, to an Illinois team that was among the worst in the B10, and I watched part of that game, it was a lot closer than you'd like to admit. Pitt, the #2 team in the conference, lost to NC State and barely held on to beat a 6-6 Notre Dame team, at home. After that, the drop off is significant, to #3 West Virginia, who squeaked by Colorado and lost to a mediocre Auburn team.

The Big Ten isn't great, but Ohio State lost in the final minutes to a good USC team, Iowa beat up on a very good Arizona team and an Iowa State team that was in the Big Twelve north hunt until a couple weeks ago. Wisconsin beat a pretty good Fresno State team by almost the same margin that Cincy did, Purdue almost upset Oregon...yes, I'm grasping at straws here to justify a point I don't really believe. But even if this is a good year for the Big East, with 2 teams ranked in the top 15, it's an anomaly. Your champion last year was ranked, what, 13? and got beat up in the Orange Bowl. Both Pitt, and the Big East, need to improve and maintain consistency so they can be taken seriously.

Bill S.

Same Charlie?
I did wet myself laughing at this article because the gap between the programs is gone: http://nittanywhiteout.com/2008/06/18/gone-in-9...

Wait, on the thread underneath that article, are you the one that came back with the 1981 rebuttal? Hahhaahahahahaa. Sorry, you just lost your credibility with me there. Looks like you are the one trying to look back to how things used to be. LOL. I didn't even have to mention the lovely "Pitt 12, Penn State 0" box score.

Charlie

"Gap between the programs is gone". You're kidding right? You might want to wait til Pitt actually strings together 2 seasons before you talk about rising to Penn State's level. Wait, don't you guys still have W Virginia and Cincinnati left? Scratch the first request, try winning the Big East first this season before you compare yourself to the Lions.

Bill S.

The funny "conference stuff" creeps up again. Just so you know, Pitt doesn't have to win the Big East to be as good as Penn State. Seriously.

Charlie

No you're absolutely right. Pitt actually has to at least win the Big East 2 out of the last 4 seasons, have 4 consecutive seasons with at least 9 wins and be nationally relevant to people outside of Western Pennsylvania to be as good as Penn State.

Bill S.

Sorry, Charlie. LOL. Nope, dead serious. I don't know how you can continue to resist the obvious (and the factual). Is your PSU bias that heavy? You must be blind to facts. And no, I am not talking about stadium attendance. LOL.
How do you determine which team is better? You'll have to let me know. Some people look at rankings, strength of schedule, etc. What do you use? I'm talking about the current play of your team. Based on what you have accomplished this season, tell me how you can suggest that Pitt isn't comparable to Penn State this year? I would love to hear this.

psudevon

This year is the one year, in the past few, that Pitt can even really compare to Penn State. I wish we'd had a chance to play, because I think the teams are very very comparable. I'd love to see a matchup between Pitt and Penn State, but one really good year does not a great program make. If you can keep up this level of competitiveness, with 9 win seasons for 5 straight seasons, like we've done, then I'll say you're at the same level as Penn State. Until then, you're another solid team from the weakest major conference in the Division 1-BCS Subdivision,

Bill S.

As I mentioned earlier, Pitt doesn't have to have several 9 win seasons to compete with (or even defeat) Penn State. I could sit here and say the Big Ten is overrated and doesn't perform well in the postseason (regular bowls or BCS bowls) and throw numbers back and forth (that I am sure you are aware of), but I don't care to take that route at the moment. Pitt and Penn State were probably even more comparable than you would like to admit last year (particularly since it seems rankings don't mean much to Charlie).

Again, the only interesting line to draw from this article was: "Penn State is probably a better team than Iowa." It seems like you flip flopped from just two weeks ago, Devon. You had just quoted to me: "We beat the teams that we should beat, and, this year, have lost to those better than us." I'm kind of confused now as to which way you want to lean. It's hard for me to tell if you are being real with me or just making things up to fit your argument. So tell me, which one do you really believe?

Charlie

Wow, this is like the kid that finally wins a game of (insert your sport) and beats his chest like he just won the superbowl. You want to talk about numbers, and the supposed closing gap between the programs, yet you won't acknowledge the huge difference in consistent success between the programs. Somehow one successful season validates your team's ability to compete with and beat Penn State who have out recruited and outperformed your program by a vast margin in the past few seasons. Until these two teams actually play, all your claims of how Pitt could actually compete with Penn State are mere conjectures and pointless. Even Rutgers had a 11 win season in 2006. Look how well that lasted.

Bill S.

You just made Devon's argument look silly. My point exactly. I could care less about the number of wins you get each year. When you play a schedule as weak as yours, wins don't mean much. The same with recruiting. You and Devon like this "out-recruiting" thing. ABSURD! If you out-recruit us it doesn't directly translate into you beating us on the field. Just like putting alot of people in the stands. That doesn't equate to wins. Just like putting players in the NFL too. It cracks me up how many PSU fans use these as arguments that they could beat Pitt.

Charlie

Penn State and Pitt will never play as long as Joe Paterno is alive and I am perfectly fine with that. We have the Big Ten and could care less what happens to you guys. Conjecture all you want and if you really believe you guys will be competitive year in and year out with us, so be it. You know what they say about crazy people, they don't know they're crazy. Numbers and rankings apparently only apply to you this year and no other and that's fine. Don't you have a game you should be watching or something. I know the rest of the country sure isn't.

Bill S.

You're right, they won't play as long as JoePa is coaching. Seems hypocritical that you would say you could care less what happens to us. That's why you write articles/blogs on issues pertaining to Pitt, right? If it really didn't matter, you wouldn't waste your time on here either.

Yeah, I'm sure the rest of the country really enjoys those games against Temple, Eastern Illinois, and Akron. Don't stop believin'!

psudevon

Bill-
I'll take on all your points right here, because I don't want to have to hit reply a half dozen times:

(a) You talk about my PSU/Iowa comparisons, and two weeks ago, I did think Iowa was a better team than Penn State. In the past month, we've seen them lose to Northwestern and Ohio State, and struggle mightily to move the ball against Minnesota. They've gone from world-beaters to pedestrian, and though they were clearly the better team THAT NIGHT I think a matchup of those two teams today could just as easily go the other way. Is that fair to say?

Next, (b) you obviously admit that Pitt hasn't enjoyed the same kind of success in the past few years as Penn State, and I'm glad to see you're acknowledging that. Now, I'm not saying Pitt is a BAD team, but last year, I think Penn State was better than all but a small handful of teams. This year? Not so much. I think we're a pretty solid team, but not nearly as great as we were a year ago. Now, if we were to play, it would be a close game every year because of the rivalry aspect, but when you look at which PROGRAM is better, you've got to give the edge to PSU, right?

So (c) Recruiting and fan support: we like to use these tools to gauge a program, and when two are competing for largely the same kids (virtually every Penn State commit this year had a Pitt offer, not sure if its the same the other way around) and Penn State wins them, it shows that Penn State is considered a better place to play, a more desirable school to go to and play for. And with the adage that games are won in living rooms, rather than on the field, with better players typically come better teams. Look at USC or Florida. And with fan support, let's be honest, you wish, as a real Pitt fan, that you had a 110,000 person stadium and the best student section in the country. We're proud of that, and think that all of central PA rallying around its team is a point of personal pride. But, no, that itself isn't a reflection on the team, just the program.

So (d) I really wish Pitt could play Penn State every year, if only because we need a decent out-of-conference game so we stop playing garbage games like we do every year. Do I think you're as quality as the Alabama team we'll be playing next year? No, but the amount of hate and conflict between the fans of these two teams would make it fun, and I'd love to have the bragging rights back. Unfortunately, and going back to the stadium thing here, sharing revenues gives us a raw deal, since even if you sell out your rented stadium, it'll be a third Penn State fans and 40,000 seats short of the Beav.

Tough luck losing to WVU, that was a great game, but I don't think you can call yourselves elite just yet. If 10 win seasons become the norm, I'll call you equals.

Bill S.

Well, Devon, I think you seem to be a bit more reasonable than Charlie. Maybe I am using some wrong terminology myself. In saying, "The gap between the programs is gone" I am merely getting at the fact that if PSU and Pitt played, it's quite possible Pitt could win that game (which would surprise many people--particularly PSU fans). Sure, where it is played would be a factor. I can see your points for "being a great program" above. I guess I am simply speaking of having the teams match up head-to-head. I don't really see the number of wins in a season, recruiting, and stadium attendance as being issues that influence how that would turn out (a head-to-head matchup).
Yeah, Alabama is good. We've amped up our schedule as well (with more than just one big non-conference game like Alabama). I'm sure we could find more difficult opponents than Penn State too. Sounds like you watched some of the Pitt/WVU game. That's good. We'll have to get ready for a huge game next week against Cincy. Seems kind of dumb the Big Ten has such a huge layoff. Why don't you guys do something about that?

psudevon

I'll have to disagree with you there, Bill, because as we see so often, close games don't have to be between two evenly matched teams. Nobody would tell you that Auburn is as good as Alabama this year, or Texas A&M is half the team that Texas is, but when they play a rivalry game out on the field, it's always close. Losing those games would not surprise anyone associated with either team. But if we're not playing on the field, then you have to look at the other factors, because it frankly doesn't matter which "team" is better when they're on the gridiron.

And next year, the B10 schedule is extended a week. Still, I'd love a 12th team and a conference championship game. Notre Dame plz?

Bill S.

OK, well it sounds like you are saying it is possible. That's good. It goes against what most PSU fans would say, though: "Oh, you can't beat us." "We don't even think about you."

Bill S.

And here are the conference ratings from your buddy Sagarin:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc09.htm

Interesting. I bet you are surprised (like most PSU/Big Ten fans would be). I'm not. I guess you'll have to tell me that most people don't believe this. It would be hard to put credibility on his computer rankings in one area and disregard them in another.

psudevon

Well, I think the question that has to be asked is what the proper measure is of conference strength. When you talk top-to-bottom, I'd argue that the Big Ten's strength is up there with any other conference. Illinois challenged Cincy and they're the worst team in the B10, then you've got Purdue, who knocked off OSU, Michigan, who beat ND, and even Indiana, who had a ton of tough losses. The Big East is like that too, outside of Louisville and Cincy, and to a lesser extent, Pitt, most of those teams are of similar strength and wouldn't be an easy beat. But where the Big Ten falls is with its lack of elite teams. Similarly, the Big XII has one good---great---team in Texas, but I'm confident in saying Penn State could knock off any of the other 11 teams, and so could any of the top 4 teams in the Big Ten. So rating 11 or 10 or 8 or 12 teams as a whole is a lot more controversial and questionable than ranking each team on its own merits. I never put much stock in "conference" rankings, because they're simply too controversial.

Bill S.

Eh, I don't really buy that argument. I think Penn State could beat several of the teams in the Big 12, but I think they could lose to several of them as well. This is funny because it is all speculation. I don't think their record in the Big 12 would be any better than what it is now in the Big 10. If you look at the computer rankings of the conference teams, many of the mid-level teams from the Big East are tougher outs than the Big Ten's middle. The #4, #5, and #6 teams in our 8 team league are ranked ahead of the middle team in your conference (Michigan State--again, possibly PSU's best win this year). I can understand why the conference computer rankings are the way they are. I don't really think they are that controversial.

psudevon

All I'm saying is it's much tougher to get a read on 12 teams than a single 1. If you line the teams in the Big Ten up, one by one, tell me who you think wins each matchup:

Cincy/OSU
Pitt/Iowa
WVU/Penn State (PSU)
Wisconsin/Rutgers
Northwestern/South Florida
Michigan State/UConn
Louisville/Michigan
Syracuse/Indiana

Other than PSU beating WVU, what other games can you say you're 75% sure of one team winning? Those would be some fairly even games, I even substituted in our worst teams to face your worst. Same goes with the Big XII. If head-to-head matchups like that are the measure of a conference, how do we analyze it any other way?

Bill S.

Same analysis with fairer matchups from a statistical analysis standpoint. Left out 1 team above your midpoint, Wisconsin. Left out 1 team below your midpoint, Illinois. And left out your midpoint, Michigan State (Big East doesn't have a midpoint with only 8 teams).

Cincy/OSU
Pitt/Iowa
WVU/PSU
Rutgers/NW
South Fla./Purdue
UConn/Minnesota
Louisville/Michigan
Syracuse/Indiana

Sagarin would give the Big East the 5-3 edge here (Pitt, Rutgers, S. Fla., UConn, and Syracuse). Interesting.

psudevon

Yeah, and that goes to the fallacy of conference schedules, since we have the extra 3 teams. Either way, and I'm not conceding this point, we can agree that the middle of the pack in the Big Ten and the Big East is similar, so there's no use really arguing between us.

Bill S.

The teams are what they are. This has very little to do with conference scheduling. You think if they played two more games each that the conference (Big Ten) would look much different than it is now? It wouldn't. Go ahead and project it. Then we can compare. It would be practically the same thing. It's funny that you are still not conceding this.

psudevon

That's not what I'm arguing. I'm really not arguing anything, at all. If a matchup of 8 teams would yield a 5-3 result on either side, that's pretty even, and as they say, you can't play games on paper. Frankly, all the conferences are pretty weak this year, with the exception of the top 2 teams even the SEC is way down. To rank conferences in a year such as this is pretty pointless.

Charlie

"Rational Pitt fan" That must be an oxymoron shouldn't it? I find it laughable to be taking any advice from a fan base whose annual rite of passage is to claim they are on the upswing and when Wanny finally puts together a respectable season for the first time, use it as validation that Pitt was still capable of beating the Lions during their shitty seasons. I do have to give Bill props for not writing the obligatory "we beat you last time we played" line. Although I'm sure he probably just forgot.

Well done Pitt. You could possibly win the Big East. What's that joke about the Special Olympics again? Oh yeah, even when you win, you're still retarded.

Bill S.

Hey, it's your favorite rational Pitt fan again.

Economics drive the BCS system. True.
PSU probably doesn't deserve a BCS bid based on what they accomplished on the field when compared to Iowa (you state this in your article above). True.
PSU may still get a BCS bowl. True.

I found this to be the most hilarious statement in the article, however:
"...and even though Penn State is probably a better team than Iowa (I sincerely think they would win that game if it was played again at a neutral site)."

This is the typical response over the years from PSU fans that I have come to find completely laughable. I love the extreme speculation based on well, nothing really except being a PSU fan. Iowa beat you at home and now you want to move the game to a neutral location, change the conditions of the game (ok, now Stanzi is out for them--that might help, lol), and you somehow conclude that you are the better team. PSU was just coming off their best win of the year before they played Iowa--a 31-6 thrashing of Temple. Yes, "you routed Temple, dude". LOL. I guess if you kept playing Iowa, you would eventually win and thus be able to cement your claim that PSU is the better team.

psudevon

Bill, here's my reasoning, and it is based on more than just speculation:
I won't bring up common opponents or anything like that, but rather just one stat: the Sagarin Ratings ELO_CHESS projector, which, though not used in the BCS formula (because it uses margin of victory) is the one Jeff Sagarin himself says is the best projecion of which team would beat another:
In that ranking, Penn State is 14th, and Iowa 25th. So, there's my reasoning, really.

Bill S.

The ELO_CHESS predictor is used in the BCS formula. It does not use margin of victory.

You've reported the correct rankings for PSU and Iowa, but that is for Sagarin's Pure Points Predictor (which does use margin of victory). Alot of emphasis to put on a single computer ranking, but I can deal with that.

The info is there, but a couple of weeks ago I thought you said Iowa was the better team. I don't know. I think we can make the case that Pitt is there too.

psudevon

Hey Bill-
Thanks for clearing that up--I'm not too great when it comes to the computer stuff--but it's really the only method I know to compare two teams. It's not perfect, but I'll use it as my justification.

If Pitt had won tonight, I'd have given you the edge in a Pitt/PSU matchup. But now, we're two 2-loss teams, and frankly, I wouldn't say either of us have had a truly great year, with no marquee wins for either of us. We both lost to our biggest rivals, and you had a team that might be the best in the past 20 years, but lost a gimme game and then a close one tonight. It's tough, and I can't wish you luck next week, but I hope you can maintain a level of consistency that forces the powers that be to make sure we play every year.

juniorb

I thought the proximity + the undefeated top 5 ranking would get TCu the nod over Iowa (Fiesta not considering PSU)

Charlie

That's my assumption as well. If Oklahoma State isn't available, wouldn't it be the in the Fiesta Bowl's best interest to pick TCU? They're basically the local team and a Top 5 squad entering the matchup. Iowa's television draw is lackluster at best and a Iowa/TCU matchup would ensure the Fiesta one of the lowest if not lowest rated BCS game this year (barring a Big East/non-BCS matchup).

psudevon

Not at all. If they pick TCU first, then the Orange goes and takes a Big Ten team, and who's left for the Fiesta? Boise State? Pitt? Cincy? No, take PSU/Iowa first or take Okie State first, because TCU WILL be there next.

juniorb

What if Oklahoma State loses? Fiesta chooses TCU with 1st pick. PSU to Orange. Does Fiesta choose Boise with 2nd pick?

Gtch PSU orange
Bama/Flor Cinci Sugar
TCU Boise?or? Fiesta

psudevon

If Okie State loses, then the Fiesta, in all likelihood, goes with Iowa. In fact, I'd say right now the Fiesta is 60%/25%/15% leaning to the Cowboys over Iowa and then Penn State, and that would then shift to about 70%/30% for the latter two if Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State on Saturday. TCU would never get picked ahead of Iowa or PSU.

Charlie

Yea, Iowa fans can scream and shout about head to head matchups all they want. How did that Oklahoma-Texas head to head matchup do for Texas last year Hawkeye fans? Other than the National Championship game, there is no fair in the BCS. Once the Fiesta Bowl passes the Hawkeyes over with their pick, it'll be all over for Iowa unless the Orange Bowl relishes another VT/Cincinnati ratings disaster.

psudevon

The national championship game isn't fair either. Is it fair for TCU, who really is a very good team, that they'll be shut out?

mutsy67

" Most importantly, though, they beat Penn State head-to-head, and even though Penn State is probably a better team than Iowa (I sincerely think they would win that game if it was played again at a neutral site)"

The game was AT Penn State - in the rain - and IOWA won. What neutral site would you suggest that brings Penn State the win??
Not to mention: Iowa - without Ricky Stanzi Tied OSU in regulation play - PSU did not.

psudevon

Bringing up common opponents doesn't mean much. We both lost to Ohio State, so what difference does it make how bad we lost? Why not look at Michigan, who you barely squeaked by and we dominated? Or Northwestern, who you lost to and we won by 3 touchdowns? You're a team who peaked early and has struggled down the stretch, whereas Penn State had trouble getting their legs beneath them early. If they were to play again, it would be a good matchup, but I think we'd have the upper hand. Plus, Sean Lee was out for that game, and when he played, he was our best defensive player.