Now that the regular season is finally done and past us, we can finally look forward to the games that actually matter. For the better part of this season, the Lions seemingly played themselves onto the bubble only to lose it away the following week over and over again. Wins over Michigan State, Illinois and Wisconsin were negated by sweeps by Michigan, Purdue and Ohio State, often in heartbreaking fashion. The Lions are in no better position today following the conclusion of the regular season than during conference play when they hovered at or around .500 all season long. Now with the regular season finally behind us, the Lions have an opportunity to play themselves into the Dance. If they can’t put together a run next week in Indianapolis, how would it be any different come March against the Top 68 teams in the nation? It’s finally time to put up or shut up.

As of today less than a week before the 2011 Big Ten Tournament, the Lions

• appear in 3 of the 66 bracket projects tracked by Bracket Project
• and listed as 1 of the last 4 teams out by SI’s Andy Glockner

Not great, but it does suggest that the Lions are teetering right on the edge and could be right back in the discussion for an at-large with a run through the B1G tournament.

The following chart essentially sums up how the selection committee will look at teams still in the discussion. Wins are listed in order of quality in the left column. Teams that projected to be in the Tournament or on the bubble are in bold. These would be squads that bracketologists have considered worthy of the field based on their own criteria so a win against a higher seeded team would be viewed far more favorably than an lower seeded opponent. Teams not projected for the field of 68 are listed based on their RPI. The RPI is really the only way committee members can judge the strength of your opponents and as Andy Staples described following last week’s media mock selection process, it is a stat essentially attached to every piece of data the committee sees in the selection room.

Losses are listed on the right, with the worst losses listed first and upcoming games are listed in the center. The committee isn’t allowed to take margin of victory into account so a 3 point loss to Ohio State is just as bad as a 15 point beatdown by Purdue, but they can and do take notice of where a game is played (home/neutral/away) and whether a game was played without particular players lost to injury (ex: Jeff Brook’s dislocated right shoulder).

Ouch. The Nittany Lions’s resume seems weaker when compared to 2 weeks ago. 2 weeks ago, Minnesota was projected to be a 10-seed, Fairfield a 14-seed and Duquesne was projected to be on the bubble. Today, Minnesota is reeling from a 5 game losing streak dropping them back onto the bubble, Fairfield was knocked out by St. Peter’s in the MAAC tournament and Duquesne has lost 6 of their final 8 games. Although they are all still Top 100 RPI wins, they just aren’t as attractive as they were 2 weeks ago. Since then, the Lions have also notched road victories over Top 100 RPI foes Northwestern and Minnesota, but also another loss to top ranked, and projected top seed Ohio State at home. This leaves the Lions exactly where they were 2 weeks ago, teetering on the edge of the bubble needing a run through the B1G Tournament to boost their at-large chances.

Should the Lions make it all the way to the B1G Tournament Final, that would most likely provide the 2 extra conference wins needed to solidify their spot on the bubble. Unfortunately, Indiana with a projected RPI of 121 is our first round opponent providing little or no boost to our bubble hopes by beating them, but losing to them would be devastating and kill any chance of staying in the discussion come Selection time.