Sunday, 22 October, 2017

Gold retreats as dollar ticks up ahead of European Central Bank meeting

EURUSD Hourly EURUSD Hourly
Rosalie Gross | 21 July, 2017, 01:49

CENTRAL BANKS: Japan's central bank opted to keep its monetary stimulus intact while downgrading its outlook for inflation.

Bond Strategist at Investec Wealth & Investment Shilen Shah agrees there despite some hints that the European Central Bank is likely to announce that a taper of its bond buying programme at its September press conference, Draghi kept his cards close to his chest.

Analysts said the United States dollar also remained weaker given the collapse late on Monday of a Republican overhaul of the U.S. healthcare system. While Draghi said no date had been set for discussing any changes to the program, investors believed discussions in the autumn would lead to monetary tightening next year.

The Euro has steadily gained against the Pound today, despite the largely dovish slant to the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting and the better-than-expected United Kingdom retail sales.

Attention will now swing to ECB President Mario Draghi, who will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. Frankfurt time, or 8:30 a.m.

Nevertheless, the president's comments "opened the back door to announce a reduction in monthly bond purchases from next year in September or October", commented analyst Kristian Toedtmann of Deka bank.

"The incoming information confirms a continued strengthening of the economic expansion in the euro area, which has been broadening across sectors and regions", he said.

The 19-country eurozone economy is enjoying a solid recovery; the European Commission predicts the eurozone will grow 1.7 percent this year and 1.8 percent next year. Data on Monday confirmed that consumer prices in the euro zone rose 1.3 percent year-on-year in June, in line with market expectations and decelerating from 1.4 percent in May.

The British Pound to Euro exchange rate has fallen to 1.1213 today, even though United Kingdom data was positive on the face of it and the European Central Bank left policy unchanged.

However, there has been speculation that the bank might soon begin to signal a winding down of the programme.

At the time of the report, the Euro has eased back 0.17% to $1.15345, having hit an intraday high $1.1557 through the Asian session.

The bank also retained its asset purchases of Euro 60 billion a month till December 2017, or beyond, if necessary.

Draghi is not expected to give much away at his news conference following the meeting of the bank's 25-member governing council, at which no changes in the stimulus are expected. That is even though most analysts think the bank will have to taper off the purchases next year because it will start running out of eligible bonds to buy.

GBP Weakens on Brexit Talk Roadblock as French Claim; "We Want Our Money Back " French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire has evoked the spirit of Margaret Thatcher after telling the United Kingdom "we want our money back" in the European Parliament.

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