Monday, 20 November, 2017

Treasury Yields Fall On Weak Inflation, Retail Sales

MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan ticked up 0.1 per cent. File Reuters MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan ticked up 0.1 per cent. File
Christy Curtis | 16 July, 2017, 01:19

Traders on Friday reduced their view the Federal Reserve would raise rates again before year-end following weaker-than-forecast data on consumer prices and retail sales in June, according to interest rates futures.

Global stock markets scaled fresh record highs, capping their best week in more than two months, and oil prices gained in volatile trading amid signs of strengthening demand.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan ticked up 0.3 per cent. Japan's yen-sensitive Nikkei slid 0.4 per cent on the yen's gains but MSCI's dollar-denominated Japan index gained 0.5 per cent. The Australian dollar rose 1.22 percent to $0.7823, well on track to post its best weekly performance in four months.

However, the core consumer price index (CPI) is forecast to have risen only 1.7 percent year-on-year in June after a similar gain in May.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.7 percent, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day down by 0.01 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.2 percent, France's CAC finished the day down by 0.1 percent.

The euro added 0.1 percent to 1.1416 against the dollar while the British pound was also 0.1 percent higher to 1.2966, a breakout of 1.2984 would likely lead the pound to a high of 1.3051.

At the time of the report, the Dollar Spot Index was down 0.05% at 95.681, easing from gains made through the Asian session, with the markets looking towards today's economic calendar. As we discussed two weeks ago, USA data has disappointed for much of 2017, and that's created questions behind just how aggressively the Fed might be able to hike.

U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in June and retail sales fell for a second straight month, pointing to tame inflation and soft domestic demand. That followed a report that the European Central Bank is likely to signal in September that its asset purchase programme will be gradually wound down next year.

In June, gasoline prices fell 2.8 per cent, decreasing for a second straight month. Retail sales rose 2.8 per cent year-on-year in June. The German 10-year yield fell as much as 4 basis points to 0.49 per cent, before paring declines to about 0.53 per cent at the end of day.

Yellen's comments on Wednesday regarding the neutral rate and subdued inflation sent a more dovish message to the markets than we've become accustomed to, particularly of late with a number of central banks suddenly appearing in a rush to tighten monetary policy.

Spot gold gained 0.96 pct at $1,228.61 per ounce by 3:01 p.m. EDT (1901 GMT) after hitting $1,232.76.

The most-active US gold futures for August delivery futures settled up $10.20, or 0.84 percent, at $1,227.50 per ounce.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 rose 46 cents to settle at $46.54 per barrel.

Brent crude futures, the worldwide benchmark for oil, settled up 49 cents at US$48.91 per barrel.

Other than the yen, the dollar was on the gaining side with the rest of the major currencies including a 0.2 boost to 0.9695 against the Swiss franc.

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