Wednesday, 13 November, 2019

Balance apparent, but supply issues leave oil prices bruised

Debra Rodriguez | 18 August, 2017, 00:35

"While global inventories have managed to decline in recent months, the threat of USA shale has meant inventory draws have found difficulty providing significant price support", said Robbie Fraser, commodity analyst at Schneider Electric (PA:SCHN).

Futures rose 0.5% in NY after slipping a second session on Tuesday.

"At the rapid attrition rate of the past two months, the US oil surplus would be gone by mid-December", analysts at Standard Chartered said Wednesday.

In the latest week to August 11 for which government data was available, Cushing inventories increased almost 700,000 barrels.

Taking a deeper look into the technical levels of ETFS GBP Daily Hedged WTI Crude Oil (FCRU.L), we can see that the Williams Percent Range or 14 day Williams %R now sits at -48.42.

Crude inventories declined to 466.5 million barrels and were down 4.9% on the year.

Data this week from the U.S. Energy Information Administration supported a bullish report on declines in U.S. crude oil inventories offered by the American Petroleum Institute.

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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries together with non-OPEC producers including Russian Federation have pledged to restrict output by 1.8 bpd between January this year and March 2018.

Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest crude exporter, shipped the least oil in nearly three years in June, just as domestic stockpiles are dwindling.

Crude oil prices were moving slightly lower early Thursday as sentiment about a balanced market competed against rising US and OPEC oil production. The department's Office of Fossil Energy said the sale from the federally owned stockpile was scheduled for late August.

Speculation that OPEC will fail to re-balance global oil markets with its supply quota plan continues to weigh on oil prices.

US stockpiles have become a closely watched proxy as investors watch for signs that the global oil glut is shrinking.

The EIA reported that gasoline inventories were rose slightly by 22,000 barrels last week - short of the 1 million barrel decline analysts were anticipating, as demand for the fuel fell.

-Oil futures rebounded some in Asian trading after fresh US selling overnight as weekly output neared 2015's peak last week. The risk to supply also includes Mother Nature as the National Hurricane Center storm map looks like Pacman with one storm chasing another and then another storm after that!

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