Thursday, 13 December, 2018

US Treasuries slump ahead of FOMC member Kaplan's speech, Jackson Hole Symposium

Debra Rodriguez | 23 August, 2017, 00:30

Analysts are divided as to whether or not Mario Draghi, the ECB President, will drop hints on a policy shift at this week's Jackson Holy symposium of central bankers.

It originated as a deeply technical event, rather than a forum for central bankers to share their thoughts on the state of the economy with the world's investors and media, although it has evolved into that. It held well below a 2-1/2-year high above $1.19 hit earlier this month as markets bet the euro's double-digit gains this year may be too much for a central bank that is still wary of removing stimulus.

"(Federal Reserve boss Janet) Yellen looks to have just four months left in her role, possibly leaving her in a more favourable spot to raise interest rates before the end of the year". "If she wants to implement this in October, she could announce it in September", said Kathy Bostjancic, head of U.S. macro investor services at Oxford Economics.

The common currency edged lower on Monday and is extending last week's decline, the largest weekly fall since early June, as investors ponder the next move by the European Central Bank.

Under Draghi, the European Central Bank has pumped more than 2 trillion euros ($2.35 trillion) into the global financial system. Still, the index is up 13.5 percent since the election. At the same time, US Treasury Note prices are stuck at 2017 resistance (aligning with UST 10Y Yield support).

"We have certainly noticed the stock market is up considerably over the past year", she said.

The dollar index last stood at 93.101 .dxy , having retreated from a three-week high of 94.145 set last Wednesday.

ENERGY: Benchmark U.S. crude was up 3 cents at $47.56 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange while Brent crude, used to price worldwide oils, fell 2 cents in London to $51.64 a barrel.

Against the dollar, the pound was at its weakest point in almost four weeks, down 0.5% at 1.283.

The Euro has defied gravity even as the fresh news has dried up and the Dollar has somewhat found its feet. "There is some risk that it remains this way for the rest of the week, as financial markets wait for the Jackson Hole Symposium this weekend". However, it remained mostly down against other major currencies.

Dispensing equipment maker Nordson (NDSN) is also likely to come under pressure after reporting better than expected third quarter results but providing disappointing guidance.

Instead, Draghi could repeat a message he gave in June at the ECB forum in Sintra, near Lisbon, when he expressed confidence in the eurozone economic recovery and reminded investors the ECB's exit from QE would be contingent on calm conditions on the financial markets, according to Mark Wall, chief economist at Deutsche Bank.

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