Monday, 03 August, 2020

OECD upgrades eurozone and China growth forecasts; United Kingdom and USA unchanged

Reserve Bank assistant governor Luci Ellis SHARE Share on Facebook SHARE Share on Twitter TWEET Link
Christy Curtis | 21 September, 2017, 00:20

The Paris-based economic think tank says it now expects the Canadian economy to grow by 3.2 per cent this year, best in the G7.

Not even a 13% increase in the euro's strength against the dollar since the start of the year would knock back euro zone growth as firm global demand drove exports, Mann said.

Expanding investment, employment and trade support have increased growth across most countries, but the recovery of business investment and trade remain too low to sustain healthy growth and wage growth has been "disappointing on average".

Higher interest rates usually have a cooling effect on growth, helping to keep inflation in check. "Monetary policy should remain accommodative in some economies but with an eye on financial stability so as to remain supportive of further rebalancing towards fiscal and structural initiatives".

The risk of an interest rate rise next year has become a hot topic among economists following the recent run of strong jobs growth. Improvements in wage growth, productivity and regulation in world markets will need to be made, however, if the prediction is to be met, it said. Growth in China is revised upward, to 6.8% this year and a more moderate 6.6% next year, as stimulus measures ease and efforts continue to stabilise corporate debt and rebalance the economy.

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Growth forecasts for Germany, France and Italy were also raised. Its June forecast noted the economy was gaining steam, propelled by government spending on infrastructure, social housing, education and innovation, as well as rising household wealth and rebounding business investment, particularly in the resource sector.

The previously identified growth slowdown is expected to continue through 2018, while uncertainty remains over the outcome of negotiations around the decision to leave the European Union, the OECD said.

Globally, the pace of expansion is expected to pick up this year compared to 2016, with a further uptick projected in 2018. The projection for next year was kept at 2.3%.

Growth in Japan is expected to be 1.6 per cent this year and 1.2 per cent next year.

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